Putin is delaying the National Security Strategy
With help from Daniel Lippman
Vladimir Putin's threat to Ukraine is scuttling the Biden
administration’s hopes of soon releasing a National Security Strategy. |
Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s threat to Ukraine is scuttling the Biden administration’s hopes of soon releasing a National Security Strategy, NatSec Daily has learned.
The legally required document could change significantly depending on whether and how the Russian leader invades Ukraine. But overall, President JOE BIDEN and his aides are unlikely to change their core assertion that China, not Russia, is the greater long-term threat to America.
The law requires that presidents submit a National Security Strategy annually, but administrations often fail to meet that standard, and the Biden team did not deliver one last year despite many in the foreign policy world thinking that it would. Those expectations then changed to the first quarter of 2022. A senior official said today that the administration believes it will meet its “anticipated release date” but would not say what that date was.
A person familiar with the issue confirmed that Russia’s unclear plan for Ukraine is one factor affecting the timing. Practically speaking, the specifics of a Putin invasion of Ukraine — such as the form that it takes, not to mention how much ground it covers — could dramatically shape how the United States details and prioritizes the Russian threat in the strategy document. That’s especially true if Putin uses a hybrid model that includes cyber attacks.
The administration, then, could find itself in a holding pattern until Putin moves. “Awkward,” one senior U.S. administration official said.
The Atlantic Council’s BARRY PAVEL, a key contributor to the 2010 NSS while serving on the National Security Council, said delaying the document’s release is “a wise move.”
“This could be a major change to the security environment. Why would you put out a NSS when one of its core assumptions might be violated or shaken, which would cause a reassessment of the strategy?” he told NatSec Daily.
The uncertainty about the strategy’s release comes as the pen moves from one staffer to another. On Wednesday, SASHA BAKER, the document’s principal writer, was confirmed by the Senate as deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. With Baker heading to the Pentagon, REBECCA LISSNER will take over her duties with the title of acting senior director for strategic planning, NSC spokesperson EMILY HORNE confirmed. Lissner has been a director of strategic planning working with Baker for the past year.
Last March, the Biden administration released an interim strategy document — an unprecedented move — that laid out many of its foreign policy priorities. Russia was mentioned a few times, including as a “destabilizing” force. It was China, however, that earned more mentions and was described as “the only competitor potentially capable of combining its economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to mount a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system.”
ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR, a former U.S. intelligence official with expertise on Russia and authoritarianism, hopes the Biden team has lost any illusions that it could simply brush the Kremlin aside or even just manage it without too much hassle.
She said Russia-related changes to Biden’s NSS shouldn’t be merely cosmetic because the Ukraine crisis is “an important turning point in Russian-U.S. relations.” That’s the case even if Putin doesn’t stage an all-out invasion, she said. If he does, it’s entirely possible there will be internal U.S. government competition over an allocation of resources for how to respond, she said.
At the moment, Putin seems unlikely to walk back his threats, Kendall-Taylor said, adding, “I think he’s ready to break things.”